The usual meaning of climate related "tipping points" are those scary feedback loops that may lead to runaway climate change - like the release of vast amounts of methane from melting permafrost.
But, in Canada we're probably approaching instead a climate-related tipping point in the political sphere, and one that holds its own dangers.
Stephen Harper has steadfastly refused to to much of anything on climate change. This is in keeping with the fact that he once denied the science itself, and has continued to surround himself with deniers even recently.
But, events of the past weeks have built to a point where his government must at least be seen to be doing something, or else face a growing political risk coming from many directions.
A strong indicator that we're approaching a political tipping point is Harper's recent messaging that he will be seeking a "binding" deal in Copenhagen. This seems to run counter to his government's strategy of not wanting any international responsibility at all - indeed, his is the only government on the planet to simply walk away from ratified Kyoto targets. Remember also that until a week ago, Harper was saying he'd not go to Copenhagen, and that nothing much was likely to happen there anyway.
Harper is likely recognizing that he needs to come away from Copenhagen with some kind of result that turns the tide of public perception that has gone dramatically against his government recently on this file.
The label for Canada as "the dirty old man of the climate world" has started to stick in the international media in the past few days, building on events in Canada that saw both the two most populous provinces and the majority of MPs in Parliament chastise the Harper government for not doing enough. Public opinion polls also consistently show Harper to be offside with Canadians on this issue. When ridicule is starting to set in, you know you have a problem.
So, Harper needs to be seen to be doing something different on climate change to turn the tide. We've seen this movie before, though, when his government was caught off guard by the upsurge in public concern following Al Gore's documentary and the fallout from Hurricane Katrina, and made all kinds of promises to get "tough" on all kinds of polluters.
But of course, nothing actually happened then, and if left to their own devices, the Harper government will seek to repeat the empty promise play once more. Its support of tar sands growth is simply incompatible with real action, and there are no signs of that changing.
Here are the key rhetoric vs. reality details that will separate a Harper government PR offensive to turn the perception tide from any actual seriousness to address Canada's growth in emissions:
1) The Harper government will stop "ragging the puck" and start doing something. Now. The line has been we are waiting for the Americans. Or waiting for the Chinese. But waiting. And waiting. The media has given Harper a pass when using this line, rather than pointing out that we can get moving today on the regulatory process to regulate large polluters, since that will take some time and we know enough already to move ahead. We cannot afford to wait another day.
2) The Harper government will stop saying it will at least match the Americans, but actually do it. This involves renouncing the loopholes it wants to give to large polluters, such as intensity targets for the tar sands (which, despite recent media stories, it has never specifically ruled out for that sector) and tech fund payments in place of reductions. This will also involve a dramatic scale up in renewable and efficiency investments to catch up to Obama.
3) Finally, the Harper government will stop claiming that even matching the Americans on pollution reductions and clean economy investments is enough to stop dangerous climate change - because it isn't - and instead begin to lobby Obama to go further. The Americans are the lowest common denominator on fighting global warming, and Harper is happy to hide in that slip-stream. But, if we are to actually come out of this crisis, we need to listen to science, and not the U.S. Congress.
I would welcome action by the Harper government on all three of these points, but will not hold my breath. Time and again our government in Ottawa has mouthed the words they think the public wants to hear and has done nothing, or worse, has tried to slip in loopholes that secretly undermine any forward motion.
As Canadians, our public and our media must stand on guard. Our kids are depending on it.
UPDATE: Don Martin confirms that the PMO has done an about face and now wants a "win for the boss." He writes:
"The last image Stephen Harper wants to project is Canada intransigently blocking a meaningful deal leaving him as the leadership face of a doomed-to-fail result."
Matt Price
Program Manager
Environmental Defence
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